US Terrorist Designation May Plummet Yemen into Deadliest Famine in Decades.
Yemen, with a population of almost 30 million, is suffering from the worst humanitarian crisis in the world and has for been a long time. Civil conflict began in 2014 and the situation has been deteriorating ever since. Over 80% of the population currently requires humanitarian assistance and protection and 16 million are food insecure. The statistics are staggering, over 3 million have been displaced by conflict, almost 18 million need water and sanitation facilities and 19.7 million are without basic healthcare. The onslaught of coronavirus and the ensuing reduction of foreign aid along with six years of war has left the Yemeni healthcare system crippled. Malnourishment and cholera outbreaks are rife but sanitation and clean water are in little supply. UNICEF has reported that only half of the country’s health facilities are still operating and those that do lack basic equipment such as masks and gloves, let alone more essential supplies such as oxygen. The cruelty of the crisis is that it is not just that facilities lack the equipment to provide treatment but also that citizens lack access or funds to pay for that service. A UNICEF press release recently detailed a medical team being begged by an eight-year-old girl from the ICU unit to be released because her father couldn’t afford food as well as medical expenses. Unfortunately, this isn’t an uncommon experience and there doesn’t seem to be any end in sight to this tragedy.
Like many Middle Eastern and North African countries in the spring of 2011, Yemen was rocked with national protests against government corruption and poor living conditions. This is where the crisis in Yemen began. The demands of protesters escalated to calls for the President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to resign but the President did not relinquish his power until after an attack on the Presidential compound. After initially claiming it was only a temporary transition, Saleh later agreed to formally transfer power to his VP, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, in exchange for immunity from prosecution. Hadi struggled to unite a fractious society though and faced threats from both Al Qaeda and Houthi militants. The Houthi movement which represents a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaydism, began in the 1980s and formed into a militia in the early 2000s. The militia had run an insurgency in the North for years which escalated into a full-blown civil war when they invaded Sana’a, the capital of Yemen, in 2014 and forced Hadi to negotiate with other political factions. Further pressure and invasions led to Hadi resigning in 2015 allowing the Houthis to claim control of the government, installing an interim Revolutionary Committee. Hadi, who fled to Aden, claimed he remains the legitimate President and declared the city the temporary capital. In 2015, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies decided to intervene, developing the conflict from a civil war to an international war. Iran, an adversary of Saudi Arabia, backed the Houthi insurgency, supplying weapons and funds. The conflict only seems to get more grisly as more actors intervene, such as the U.S who have supported Saudi Arabia since 2015, refuelling warplanes that drop bombs, many of which kill civilians, children included. The U.S stopped fuelling the planes in November 2018 after pressure from democrats and now aids Saudi Arabia in gathering intelligence; this transition hasn’t stopped America’s intervention claiming lives, though, as experts claim that America’s latest foreign policy intervention in Yemen may only worsen the fate of millions of Yemeni citizens, potentially plunging them into the worst famine the world has seen in decades.
On January 11th, the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, in a hasty press briefing declared that he planned to designate the Houthi movement as a “foreign terrorist organisation”. The designation has been discussed for months, slowed by bipartisan opposition and pushback from U.S. Special Envoy for Iran, Elliot Abrams, who believed the designation would only push Houthis closer to Iran. However, a Houthi attack against Aden on December 30th seemed to propel the Trump Administration forward in their convictions. The attack took place at Aden airport shortly after a newly formed and internationally recognised Yemeni government flew in from Saudi Arabia. The violence claimed 28 lives and left a further 107 injured. Pompeo referenced the attack in his briefing, but many believe the designation will do little to create peace in the region, only adding to the “United States’ years long misguided approach to the conflict”.
Former U.S ambassador to Yemen, Gerald Feierstein, points out that the designation will do little to slow down the insurgency at all. The movement is focused on Yemen and has little connection to the outside world other than Iran. “They don’t have any international presence at all except for the relationship with Iran. They don’t have international bank accounts, they don’t have property overseas, [and] they’re completely reliant on Iran for their military support. For them, it’s a big zero, it’s a nothing…It’s a nothing for Iran as well, what do they care if the U.S. designates one more of their affiliated organizations” he said in an article for Foreign Policy. The designation will have far-reaching impacts for innocent Yemeni’s though, and threatens to place their country in an even more precarious situation. Roughly 70% of the population live in areas controlled by the militia which rules as a de facto government, permitting aid workers to provide services and food. Although the Houthi militia doesn’t have much interaction with the outside world, the outside world has a large presence in Yemen, but the new designation could destabilise that. It is likely to spook foreign businesses, investors and banks, further crippling an economythat is already in tatters. Yemen’s banking system is largely dominated and controlled by Houthis so if international banks decide to cut ties with Yemen’s banks in order to distance themselves from the Houthis then they will also be severing a key tool for humanitarian assistance. Aid agencies and NGOs need the banks in order to transfer funds, maintain operations and pay salaries and Yemeni citizens need the banks too, in order to receive remittances from abroad which serves as the main income for many citizens. The designation will also affect international dealings when it comes to food supply as 90% of Yemen’s food comes from imports and commercial channels which aid agencies cannot replace, especially with dwindling international aid. Suppliers, banks and other commercial actors have always taken high risks when it comes to aiding the situation in Yemen, but for many the designation will render the risks too high. Getting food and other supplies into the countries requires the permission of and cooperation with Houthis but if Houthis are labelled as terrorists, this action becomes illegal; businesses and banks risk getting caught up in the American regulatory system and may lose their businesses or even their freedom if it comes to prison sentences.
In the past, aid workers and suppliers have been able to get around such designations with special waivers from the US government which allows them to continue if they can ensure they are not aiding the designated terrorist. However, these waivers have not yet been designed and put in place. Even if the waivers are put in place, the time lost could be devastating for millions of Yemenis and the presence of waivers will represent legal hoops that will only further slowdown assistance, time that many Yemenis don’t have. Part of the reason the administration has moved forward with the designation without the design and installation of waivers is because of the presidential transition. Pompeo and his team want the designation in place before Biden has time to rule it out completely. Once in office, Biden could reverse the decision and there is evidence that he is interested in doing so, however, this is easier said than done and irreversible damage may already be done by the time that the administration gets to address it. Legally reversing the action is fairly simple, but politically it will face opposition by other congressional members and complicate relations with Saudi Arabia. Biden had hoped to renegotiate with Iran and find rapprochement after the heavy pressure applied by the Trump administration, but this designation will severely damage ties and any hopes that a peace agreement will be reached with the Houthis.
If the Trump Administration decides to go through with this designation, despite warnings from top officials and pleas from the UN, they threaten to place a huge amount of pressure on an already crippled country, risking countless lives in a country that has already lost over 233,000 lives since the fighting began and roughly half of its funding. To avoid famine this year $1.9 billion is needed but the country has only received $386 million in confirmed contributions so far. This lack of funding means that 9 million people are receiving only half rations and without an increase in funding, this will be reduced to quarter rations in February. The UN admitted that it had to close one third of its major programmes in August due to lack of funding. Moreover, the actions of the United States could curtail back channel-talks between Houthis and Saudi Arabia, increase violence and tip the country into a famine that hasn’t been seen in almost forty years. Currently, almost 100,000 children under five in the country are at risk of dying of malnutrition. The increase in violence and the further devastation of infrastructure coupled with the diminished foreign aid and the inability of aid workers and international suppliers to assist the country without fear of sanctions means that the world’s worst humanitarian crisis may only be able to get a whole lot worse. The good intentions of the United States — and Pompeo does seem convinced that this designation will help the fight against the extremist militia — does not invalidate the devastating consequences that will come of these actions. Over 233,000 lives have already been lost, many due to indirect causes such as poor sanitation, malnutrition and lack of health services in a country that has at times been used as a proxy in other nation’s wars. The designation is unlikely to impede the rampant violence in the country, but it will unquestionably deprive the country’s citizens of desperate assistance. Altogether, the Houthis will not be the ones affected by this designation, it’ll be the millions and millions of Yemenis struggling to stay alive in a country that the US has helped bomb and the aid workers who are risking their lives to assist them.
